The past year has led to a significant shift in international study intentions, with postgraduate audiences particularly affected. We first saw signs of this with PGT interest in the UK around a year ago, but it’s recently become present at PGR level too (as we’ve been tracking in our monthly Pulse reports).
In this post I’m going to investigate why this is happening, where these audiences are turning their attentions (and what opportunities that presents for destinations in Europe and elsewhere) as well as what the UK sector can do in response.
A succession of visa policy changes since July 2023 have seen UK postgraduate study become both more expensive and less appealing for international students. But the UK is far from alone and similar steps are also being taken elsewhere:
Since mid-2023, Australia have more than doubled visa costs, banned agent commission and vowed to scrutinize student visa applications more thoroughly.
In January, Canada announced study permit caps that have significantly reduced study permit applications.
In February, universities in the Netherlands began limiting international recruitment in response to government direction.
In October, New Zealand is set to set to increase fees for student visas and more than double them for post-study work visas.
We are seeing shifting international study intentions across the world, but the effects of these changes impact some audiences more than others.
As previously mentioned, the first notable change in search patterns for UK study was with the PGT audience around autumn last year – and that impact has been sustained. This is predominantly affecting newer international audiences that have been more likely to bring dependents.
India and Nigeria have accounted for a large proportion of the recent increase in student and dependent visas. However, now that the dependent visa no longer exists for UK PGT, our Share of Search data has revealed that prospective students from these countries, as well as other Asian and African countries, are turning their attentions elsewhere.
As we can see, through 2024 so far, interest in UK PGT has been shifting for all international audiences, but most notably for Asia — down 39 percentage points (pp) — and Africa (-23pp).
The effects on the international doctoral audience took a little longer to kick in. It was May 2024 that we first saw a significant change, coinciding with the Graduate Route review and the announcement of the UK snap election.
At PGR level, shifting interests have been slightly less dramatic:
Measuring year-on-year interest from June and July (the first full months after we saw a PGR shift) we can see that once again it is the Asian (-18pp) and African (-12pp) audiences that have been most affected. Conversely, the North American (+4pp) and European (+3pp) audiences have become more likely to seek UK institutions.
But where are attentions turning? Who stands to benefit? And what can UK universities do?
Focusing specifically on the Asian and African audiences – the two audiences most likely to pivot away from the UK at both levels of study – we begin to see a pattern emerge.
The chart above represents the swing in PGT interest between H1 2023 to H1 2024 for study destinations from the Asian and African audiences. Purple bars represent growing interest while red show a fall in interest.
Immediately evident is the fact that the UK is at the wrong end of the chart, reflecting the shifting interests of these audiences that we have already discussed. But it isn’t just the UK losing out. All of the ‘Big Four’ anglophone destinations (UK, USA, Canada, and Australia) can be found in the red. This is likely due to the aforementioned restrictive international student policies being imposed or proposed across these traditionally popular destinations.
On the other hand, it appears that Europe is becoming increasingly attractive. In particular, interest in Spain and France has more than tripled since last year. So, why is this?
European institutions offer equivalency in terms of university systems, global reputations, and the job market. Attractive post-study work visas are also widely available across many of these destinations. Finally, cost of living disparities are being reduced by the rising cost of study in the ‘Big Four’ and many European destinations are now relatively affordable compared to previous years. There is also an increasing supply of English-taught courses available at European destinations.
As the chart shows, the number of English-taught Masters level courses at European institutions has been rising for several years.
Interest in Europe was already growing, policy changes elsewhere have only exacerbated that growth.
As further evidence of the growth in interest for European study, our recent investigation into what’s happening with PGT Home found that since Q4 2022, the UK domestic audience has been slightly but steadily more likely to seek courses outside the UK. Much of this pivot is also towards Europe, most notably to Italy, Finland, Denmark, Spain, and Switzerland.
The story at PGR level is slightly different, just as the reasons for diverging audience interests are likely to be slightly different (i.e. the dependents visa still exists for doctoral students).
Comparing year-on-year study country interest from June & July for the Asian and African audiences, we see that once again the ‘Big Four’ all sit in the red, with interest falling.
However, alongside them we do see a handful of the European destinations that were growing significantly at PGT level, suggesting that with doctoral study it’s not quite as simple as ‘interest is pivoting away from the ‘Big Four’ and towards Europe’.
Certain European destinations have seen notable growth from these audiences (chiefly Poland, France, Switzerland, and the Netherlands) and this is likely to be driven by the same perks of European study that we listed earlier. But the destination that is seeing by far the strongest growth is China, where interest has more than tripled since last year.
It should perhaps also come as no surprise that China is seemingly the target doctoral destination as the ‘Big Four’ lose interest. Significant government investment through flagship schemes such as Project-958 and the Double First Class University Plan have seen China become a major destination for postgraduate study in recent years.
Like Europe, there are increasing numbers of English-led programmes as well as attractive post-study visas enabling students to build a career in the second largest economy in the world. Add to that the fact that China, already a comparatively affordable destination, is becoming even more appealing as costs rise in the ‘Big Four’ and we’re starting to get a clearer picture of why interest is moving in this direction.
Hopefully the above analysis makes clear that the shifts away from traditionally popular study destinations are opening up opportunities for a far broader range of countries and universities.
Our data goes much deeper than this and we’d be happy to help explore specific audiences in more detail, uncovering their demographics and study preferences and highlighting the opportunities to engage and encourage them right now.
Let us know what you’re looking for and our expert international team will help you find it.
Unfortunately, interest in the UK is currently down for some of the audiences that have been biggest and most buoyant in recent cycles. But that doesn’t mean there isn’t opportunity here.
The UK is still a vastly popular study destination at PGT level – indeed, over 40,000 international users actively searched FindAMasters for a UK programme last month alone. And the PGR audiences that are most likely to pivot away are also relatively small at doctoral level.
Despite there being no simple solution to international recruitment challenges, there are steps universities can take to (hopefully) reinvigorate the international audience.
UK postgraduate education is renowned across the globe. Yes, for its quality and unrivalled heritage, but also for the relative flexibility that it offers. Most of its competitors offer full-time Masters level courses that run for between 18 and 24 months – potentially twice the length of the typical UK MA or MSc.
Shorter courses are a potential solution to rising costs. They require only one years' worth of expenses (on accommodation, living costs etc.) while students complete their qualification. Unlike some other destinations, the UK also allows international students to work during term-time which can further enhance the flexibility on offer.
One of the key issues that we have seen in recent months is a growing uncertainty in all international audiences. Understandably, recent policy making, followed by a snap election left many wary of committing to UK study.
We now have a government that has pledged international students are welcome in the UK and committed to retaining the Graduate Route.
Our recent investigation into the impact of reputation and rankings on postgraduate audiences found that employment outcomes are amongst the most important factors for international students choosing a destination. The Graduate Route offers international students a very plausible route into work. It’s also particularly valued by the African and Asian audiences (those most affected by recent policy changes) – 80% of them consider the Gradate Route to be either ‘quite important’ or ‘very important’ in their decision to apply to the UK – significantly more than any other international audience.
The Graduate Route is critically important to international audiences. They need to know that it still exists.
FAU have been proud to support the #WeAreInternational (WAI) campaign since its relaunch in 2023 – and its impact is undeniable.
Students aware of the campaign are 23pp more likely to consider the UK a ‘very welcoming’ destination and 19pp more likely to be ‘very confident’ of applying. Clearly, championing the contributions that international students make across the UK, and adopting other schemes to promote the sector’s quality and inclusivity, is an effective tonic to international uncertainty.
We’ll keep communicating and you can too.
Above are some of the factors and messages that can help encourage and support international students to study in the UK in 2024 but, as our data consistently shows, these audiences are vastly varied and complex.
Our FindAUniversity and Keystone Education Group data can help identify the specific audiences seeking the opportunities you offer. Our team would love to chat about how we can help them find you.