Pulse Monitor: Are International Students Already Changing Their Study Plans?

We've already explored the recent announcements on UK student visas and considered the likely effects on PG study (spoilers: big for PGT) but we're now starting to see some of the impact coming through in our Pulse survey data.

From January 2024 which international students on taught degrees will no longer be able to bring dependents to the UK, or transfer to a skilled worker visa without first completing their course.

But it's not totally clear whether this affects:

1. New visas issued from January 2024 – in which case a 23/24 student could be joined by dependents any time during their visa
2. New courses beginning from January 2024 – in which case a January / Spring semester 23/24 student wouldn't be able to bring or be joined by dependents (though a September / Autumn semester student would)
3. Retrospective changes to all student visas – in which case current 23/24 students have limited time left to be joined by dependents

The government's own announcement simply states that "the new reforms will come into effect for students starting in January next year" (sounds like 1 or 2, but could still be 3).

Based on our Pulse data, it looks like prospective students are also assuming 1 or 2:

Here I've charted interest in September 23 starts for UK and international Masters students, based on Pulse responses since last summer (we track this data in our monthly Pulse reports, but don't normally separate out audiences).

At first, both lines follow a familiar curve, with autumn interest peaking around the new year. But there's a very obvious swing back to Autumn 23 starts for international students in May, coinciding exactly with the trail and announcement of the visa changes.

A 'rush' for September 23 feels like a fairly predictable consequence of this change and our data definitely seems to predict it. The team at FindAUniversity are, as always, around to help if you want to learn more about recruitment opportunities for the coming year, or have programmes that are particularly suitable for certain audiences.

It looks like the 'swing' back to Autumn isn't seasonal. Here's a shorter time series with interest in Autumn mapped against the previous cycle. I've also included some early data for June (up to Monday 12):

The Autumn 22 trend is consistent, with interest gradually slowing as the deadline approaches (international students obviously need to plan and apply further ahead).

The Autumn 23 line sees a much sharper fall, perhaps driven by concern over the rumoured visa announcements in March and April. We then see the increase in May, which is unique to 23. This is sustained in the (early) June data so that interest in Autumn is currently six percentage points above the previous cycle.

It seems reasonable to link the 23 trend to the visa announcements – I'll update again when we have more June data.

Another hypothesis is that international students with dependents might give up on physically studying in the UK and do so from home instead. This doesn't necessarily fit the 'bogeyman' of study as an 'immigration backdoor' but it does make some sense for students with genuine caring responsibilities (our data has helped demonstrate that these changes disproportionately affect women).

There's no evidence of a swing to online so far though:

Setting aside a slight increase in blended study (a somewhat unclear nebulous concept for internationals) in April there's no trend here yet.

It could be that the appeal of physical study abroad outweighs other factors; or that online provision isn't as understood or accepted; the data might also be too early.

We'll see if next month's Pulse update sees a sustained 'September swing'. I'll also be keeping an eye on other possible impacts, such as a pivot to PGR interest (research courses aren't affected by the dependent changes).

As ever, questions and suggestions are very welcome.